War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a sham, with major political parties dissolved, numerous figures imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unable to participate because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The military government is holding a staggered election nearly five years after it took control in a takeover, which ignited massive protests and escalated into a civil war.

Analysts note the junta, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the costly deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for disrupting or criticising the polls under a new law which carries severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a film endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, adding that resistance forces have made warnings urging people to shun the polls.

The military has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive logistical challenge for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it challenging to predict a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the results in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has called for negotiations to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not being held for the outside world," a military representative told a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "the path to democracy".