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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or simply the biggest upset.

But this year's field is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime also-rans rising collectively. Under an ordinary year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and fun year, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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